Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
