Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
